Energy Market Update - 31 October 2025
Gas eased as Norwegian supply recovered and wind prospects improved. Power dipped with gas, though a small rise in UK carbon blunted the move. Trading stayed within the recent range.
Natural gas softened after the Troll outage ended a day early and pipeline exports to Europe returned to roughly 330 mcm/day. That improvement removed the near-term premium that had crept in mid-week. The NBP curve followed lower, helped by comfortable European storage and steady LNG cover into North-West Europe. UK send-out remains adequate and the near-term tanker slate is light but visible, with the next UK-bound cargo due in mid-November. With temperatures near seasonal norms, prompt risk is being driven by day-to-day Norwegian nominations and wind realisations rather than demand spikes.
Power took its cue from gas but did not fall as far. UK carbon gained by about £0.6/t, adding some resistance to the downside for the curve. A downward revision of more than 1 GW to UK wind for the first week of November lifted the week-ahead and November spark, reflecting the prospect of higher CCGT runs in lower-wind hours. Interconnectors continued to provide margin cover and nuclear availability was broadly unchanged, keeping intraday power moves closely tied to the renewable profile.
Other commodities were mixed. EUAs were steady to softer on technical flows while UKAs firmed, widening the incentive for domestic thermal generation at the margin. Brent held in the mid-$60s per barrel as supply comfort and subdued macro data offset headline risk. Coal for 2026 delivery hovered around the low-$100s per tonne. LNG markers in Asia remained near the low-$11s/MMBtu and US Henry Hub lingered around $3/MMBtu, keeping the Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage tight and European cargo pricing anchored to hubs. Sterling was little moved against the euro, adding no extra push to fuel costs.