Energy Market Update - 03 November 2025
Prices were mixed on Monday, with gas easing after contract expiry while power held in range. Comfortable storage and improving Norwegian flows offset a brief dip in renewables and headline risk.
NBP and TTF drifted lower into the close after the November expiry, before opening today near recent averages. The TTF front month was last around €31.2/MWh, with NBP December near 80.9p/therm and NBP Day-ahead close to 73p/therm. European inventories sit a touch above 82%, injections are slowing seasonally, and Germany remains behind the bloc average. Norwegian exports continue to normalise, with aggregate nominations in the low-300s mcm/day despite residual work on Vesterled and brief blips at Troll and Nyhamna. UK balances opened comfortable on higher Langeled receipts, steady UKCS output and stronger LNG send-out from South Hook and Grain. The Atlantic slate is busy and US feedgas is forecast near record highs in the first week of November, which should keep prompt flexibility in North-West Europe. Weather remains supportive on balance. Temperatures across core hubs lean mild for the next two weeks, while the UK sees a short burst of very windy conditions as ex-Hurricane Melissa passes close to Scotland, before settling back toward seasonal norms.
Prompt power moved with wind profiles. Day-ahead baseload softened as output recovered into late blocks, while intraday spreads widened during low-wind hours. UK wind is expected to be stronger early this week, with production near 16–17 GW on Monday and around 14–15 GW on Tuesday, then reverting toward seasonal norms. Interconnector flows from France and the Netherlands continue to provide margin cover, and nuclear availability is scheduled to step up from current lows through mid-month. The curve was steady to firmer with gas. December baseload trades close to £80/MWh and Q1-26 around the mid-£80s/MWh, while Summer-26 holds near the low-£70s/MWh. With the day-to-day stack still wind-led, any short renewable dips will lift CCGT burn and the prompt, but the broader backdrop remains anchored by stocks and improving Norwegian supply.
Oil is range-bound. Brent sits near $65–66/bbl as Middle East and Black Sea risks meet soft macro data and cautious OPEC+ supply management. European coal for Cal-26 hovers around $102–103/t. Carbon is firm enough to matter for power costs. EUAs trade in the high-€70s/t and UK ETS in the mid-£50s/t, keeping thermal costs elevated without forcing a break higher. Global gas markers are broadly aligned. JKM sits near $11/MMBtu, close to TTF parity, and Henry Hub is a touch above $3/MMBtu with US production and LNG pull both healthy. Freight and trade policy are in focus after the US and China agreed a one-year deal that postpones export controls on rare earths and chips, alongside tariff tweaks that ease tensions across several sectors, including shipping. For energy, that reduces a tail risk around technology supply chains and maritime costs, even if immediate gas and power impacts are limited. On LNG, a quieter demand picture in parts of Asia and North Africa keeps more Atlantic cargoes available to Europe, reinforcing the cushion from storage and Norwegian flows into early November. Carbon-to-power pass-through remains a secondary driver compared with gas, but recent gains in both EUAs and UKAs help hold winter power strips in their range.