Energy Market Update - 04 November 2025
Gas and power firmed as renewable output weakened. Deep wind lows flagged for next week tightened the prompt, lifting week-ahead power and nudging new front-month contracts higher.
NBP rose with tighter short-term margins as renewables faded across Europe. The new front-month, Dec-25, gained 1.6p/therm, supported by forecasts for lower Alpine hydro and softer wind across central Europe later this week. UK guidance pointing to wind as low as 600 MW next Tuesday adds to gas-for-power demand risk and keeps the prompt bid. Liquidity concentrated at the front while the broader balance remains steady, so the uplift was more measured along the curve. On fundamentals, no major supply shock was reported; the move was largely weather-led.
Power followed gas higher, but the swing was sharpest on the near dates. Week-Ahead baseload jumped by about £23/MWh on the back of the UK wind trough expected early next week, while the power front-month rose £1.93/MWh. Intraday, prices tracked wind profiles, with tighter hours drawing more CCGT. Further out, UK Base spark spreads on the far curve lost value day on day because power’s gains failed to keep pace with NBP, trimming thermal generation margins despite the parallel direction of travel.
Oil was broadly steady, with macro and geopolitics taking a back seat to regional weather and power fundamentals. Carbon was mixed: recent firmness in allowances has provided a soft floor to winter power, but the latest session offered little additional push. LNG remains a helpful anchor for European balances, with Atlantic cargo availability healthy and US loadings still robust, limiting the knock-on from short renewable dips. Overall cross-commodity signals neither amplified nor countered the weather-driven move in gas and power.