Energy Market Update - 05 November 2025
Gas and power edged higher on tighter prompt balances, driven by weaker wind and cooler spells, while solid Norwegian flows and firm storage kept the curve contained.
Front-month benchmarks were steady to firmer, with TTF near €31.4/MWh and NBP November around 80p/therm. The system balance remains comfortable as Norwegian exports hold in the low-300s mcm/day and EU inventories sit a touch above 82%. LNG is doing its job in North-West Europe. The UK has a busy slate of Atlantic cargoes over the next two weeks and interconnector positions are flexible. US feedgas stays near record highs, supporting cargo availability. Near-term risk is shaped by weather and renewables. Forecasts point to cooler, wind-lighter periods through the working week before conditions normalise, lifting gas-for-power on the dips and easing it when wind rebuilds.
Day-ahead UK baseload cleared in the low-£80s/MWh range after wind tailed off through the trading window. Interconnectors from France and the Netherlands provided margin cover and nuclear availability is set to step up from tomorrow after short outages. On the curve, November firmed alongside gas while the winter strip stayed range-bound, with spark spreads holding but losing some of last week’s momentum when gas outpaced power. A stronger wind profile later this week, and again into early next week, should trim CCGT burn and soften the prompt on high-renewable hours. Policy remains a background driver. The government’s confirmed support framework for large-scale biomass from 2027 underpins flexible low-carbon back-up but has little immediate price impact.
Oil is steady in the mid-$60s per barrel as supply-risk headlines are offset by soft macro signals and disciplined OPEC+ output. Coal for Cal-26 is holding close to $102–105/tonne as utility hedging remains light. Carbon is firm, with EUAs stabilising in the high-€70s to low €80s per tonne and UKAs in the mid-£50s, keeping thermal costs elevated and lending a floor to winter power. LNG benchmarks are aligned with hubs. JKM sits in the low-$11s per MMBtu, leaving Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage narrow and reinforcing Europe’s reliance on weather and Norwegian reliability rather than long-haul price pulls. Currency moves are marginal for hedging costs. In policy, EU states agreed a 2040 target to cut emissions by around 90% versus 1990, a signal that supports carbon over the medium term. Separately, Washington and Beijing agreed to pause new export controls on rare earths and chips and to roll back specific tariff measures for one year, which eases immediate trade tension and supports risk assets without changing near-term energy balances.