Energy Market Update - 06 November 2025
Gas and power eased as milder weather and strong supply held the upper hand. Storage sits near 83% and wind remains the main swing factor for prompt pricing.
NBP and TTF opened softer, with the TTF front month indicated near €31.6/MWh and NBP front month around 82.3p/therm, while UK day-ahead was marked near 77p/therm. European stocks are close to 83% full, injections have steadied, and the UK system is comfortable on higher Norwegian receipts. Gassco nominations are in the low-to-mid-300s mcm/day with no fresh unplanned outages reported, while UK gas-for-power demand is expected lower today around the high-40s mcm. LNG remains a cushion: UK send-out is steady and a cluster of Atlantic cargoes is due over the next few days, with several more scheduled for North-West European terminals. Altogether, a mild temperature run and dependable inflows kept the near curve contained despite recent headline risk.
UK day-ahead baseload cleared around the high £80s/MWh yesterday as wind dipped through parts of the trading window before recovering into the late blocks. Curve prices tracked gas, with Dec-25 baseload near £83/MWh and Q1-26 in the mid-£80s/MWh. Interconnector imports from the continent helped cover evening margins, while nuclear availability stayed broadly in line with recent weeks. Forecasts keep wind generation below seasonal norms for a couple of days, then point to a rebuild, which should trim CCGT load and soften the prompt on stronger renewable hours.
Oil is steady after recent weakness, with Brent close to $63.5/bbl. European coal for Cal-26 holds near $104/t, reflecting light hedging further out the curve. Carbon eased mid-week, with EUAs near €81.5/t and UKAs around the high-£50s/t, as policy uncertainty around the 2040 package and ETS timing tempered recent gains. Global gas markers are mixed: Henry Hub is a touch firmer above $3/MMBtu, JKM sits a little over $11/MMBtu, and European spot-linked cargo values continue to track hub parity. Currency moves were marginal and did little to sway the complex.