Energy Market Update - 07 November 2025
Prices steadied after early gains. Cooler end week and choppy wind kept the prompt supported, but stronger wind into next week should cap upside.
Front month traded near the low €30s on TTF and around 82 pence on NBP in early dealings, with yesterday’s closes broadly unchanged. At the time of writing, NBP Dec traded near 82 pence per therm and TTF Dec around €31.5 per MWh. Near term demand is lifting as temperatures dip, yet the broader balance remains comfortable. Aggregate EU storage sits a little over the low-80s per cent. Norwegian nominations are broadly stable, though Langeled saw a softer start this morning. The LNG picture is supportive for Europe with multiple Atlantic cargoes scheduled for North West European terminals in the coming days and further deliveries signalled for Zeebrugge next week. Japan’s authorities have indicated higher LNG buying from January to build emergency stocks, a potential pull on Pacific supply later this winter, but not a near term constraint for NWE.
Prompt UK baseload remained sensitive to renewable swings. Wind’s share of GB generation fell sharply from the start of the week, lifting CCGT output and keeping day ahead prices firm despite comfortable gas supply. Curve moves were modest. UK Dec baseload printed in the low £80s per MWh and Q1 2026 in the mid £80s, tracking gas rather than setting the pace. Interconnectors provided margin cover into the evening blocks and French nuclear availability was broadly steady. A rebuild in wind expected into next week should ease the prompt and lower gas-for-power burn if realised.
Brent hovered in the low to mid $60s per barrel, little changed on the week as softer macro signals offset periodic supply headlines. Coal for Cal 2026 held a little above $100 per tonne. Carbon eased from recent highs, with EUA Dec 2025 near €80 per tonne and UK ETS around the mid €60s equivalent, providing a floor to power costs without forcing the curve higher. LNG benchmarks stayed close to European hubs. TTF-linked spot cargo values were near parity with the hub while JKM held near the low $11s per MMBtu. Henry Hub was firm relative to recent weeks. Separately, the United States and China agreed a one year pause on new export controls covering rare earths and chips and announced limited tariff accommodations on shipping and fentanyl-related measures. That deal reduces trade friction risk for energy-adjacent sectors such as shipping and metals.