Energy Market Update - 30 October 2025
Gas and power edged higher on Wednesday as Troll maintenance trimmed Norwegian flows and carbon firmed. Storage is high and LNG cover is solid, which kept the move contained.
Natural gas lifted after Troll works cut exports to about 275 mcm per day, with around 50 mcm per day expected back by Friday. Softer buying from China and Egypt continues to free Atlantic cargoes, adding flexibility alongside a busy North-West Europe schedule. The UK system opened long on higher Langeled and steady UKCS receipts, with robust send-out from recent arrivals. NBP Day-ahead settled at 78.45p/therm and November at 80.56p/therm, while the TTF front month ticked higher with European storage still in the low-80s percent.
Power tracked gas. UK Day-ahead baseload settled at £77.40/MWh. November baseload rose to £79.58/MWh and early Q1 prices firmed. Sparks softened as gas outpaced power. Wind recovered late in the session and is forecast to rebuild into next week, which should reduce CCGT burn outside lull periods. Interconnector imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands added margin cover, while short nuclear outages continue before units step up in November.
Other commodities were busier. EUAs gained to €78.81/t and UKAs held near £55.36/t, keeping thermal costs elevated. Brent traded at $64.92/bbl and API2 Cal-26 coal at $104.17/t. LNG markers were steady in the low $11s/MMBtu and Henry Hub hovered close to $3/MMBtu. Trade headlines turned supportive for risk assets after the United States and China agreed a one-year deal that postpones new export controls on rare earths and chips and pauses tit-for-tat tariffs on shipping, with separate steps on fentanyl-related duties. Easing friction should help electronics and shipping supply chains and may favour diesel and petrochemical demand if industrial activity improves, although immediate European gas balances remain driven by weather, Norwegian uptime and LNG scheduling.