Energy Market Update - 29 October 2025
Markets held within range on Tuesday. Gas and power shifted with geopolitics and wind. Storage stays strong, Norwegian flows are uneven but rising, and LNG arrivals keep near-term supply comfortable.
Natural gas traded slightly firmer into the morning before steadying. The UK system opened long with demand near 187 mcm, below seasonal norms, as higher Langeled and UKCS receipts covered a pick-up in gas-for-power. Norwegian exports remain broadly in the low-300s mcm/day but day-to-day nominations have been choppy around maintenance, with brief dips from Troll and other assets. LNG added reassurance: a Norwegian cargo was due at Isle of Grain today and a dense slate of Atlantic shipments continues to land across North-West Europe. European storage sits a touch below 83% and injections are slowing as the shoulder season fades. By the last updates NBP Day-ahead was 77.66p/therm, November around 79.6p/therm, and the TTF front month close to €31.8/MWh. Geopolitical headlines, including renewed strikes in the Middle East and ongoing Ukraine-related risk, added only a thin premium and did not alter the immediate balance.
Power followed gas but stayed wind-led. UK Day-ahead baseload cleared at £77.30/MWh, while November baseload traded near £78–£79/MWh and Q1-26 around £83–£84/MWh. Wind recovered through late blocks yesterday after a weaker start, narrowing margins and easing prompt prices. Interconnectors from France, Belgium and the Netherlands provided additional cover. Planned short-duration nuclear outages continue at Heysham and Torness, with availability expected to improve into November. Forecasts point to a dip in wind later this week before a rebuild early next week, and temperatures trend close to seasonal norms after a brief cooler spell, keeping the stack flexible and curbing sustained upside.
Other commodities were steady to mixed. Brent settled near $64.40/bbl. Coal API2 Cal-26 held around $102.8/tonne. European carbon firmed, with EUAs near €78/t and UKAs around the mid-£50s, keeping thermal costs elevated but not dictating direction. Global LNG markers were broadly aligned with hubs, with JKM in the low $11s/MMBtu and European spot-linked values near parity, leaving the Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage tight.