Energy Market Update - 28 October 2025
Gas and power eased as milder weather and higher wind trimmed demand. Supply stayed steady with strong Norwegian flows and fresh LNG. Carbon softened and the near curve remained range-bound.
Natural gas drifted lower on Monday as heating demand fell and supply stayed comfortable. Norwegian pipeline exports were about 317 mcm/day and system flexibility was helped by LNG, with a Norwegian cargo due at Milford Haven today and the next UK arrival expected on 11 November. Storage across Europe remains high for the time of year, reducing the need for prompt risk-premium. The UK Day-ahead contract opened at 81.12p/therm, down from 82.00p/therm, taking its lead from softer TTF. With temperatures forecast near seasonal norms and supply stable, the market focus is on daily NCS updates and the UK LNG slate.
Power followed gas but stayed wind-led. Stronger output through the trading window capped the prompt, with the UK Day-ahead baseload settling around the low-£60s/MWh. Curves eased in sympathy with gas as higher wind and a milder outlook point to lower CCGT burn outside low-wind hours. Interconnectors continued to provide margin cover and near-term nuclear availability was little changed, keeping a lid on the topside.
Other commodities were mixed. EUAs eased on technical selling, while the EUA–UKA spread held close to £13, leaving thermal costs elevated but not directional. Brent traded near the mid-$60s per barrel. Global LNG benchmarks were steady, keeping Atlantic cargoes competitive with European hubs and supporting regas utilisation.