Energy Market Update - 27 October 2025
Gas and power eased on Friday as stronger wind forecasts and a return to seasonal temperatures loosened near-term balances. Geopolitical noise persisted but the price impact was brief.
Natural gas drifted lower across the prompt and front month. The market read the week’s headlines as modest risk rather than a change in supply. European storage sits a touch above the low-80s percent and injections are slowing as expected. Norwegian exports continue to improve after the heavy maintenance run, with flows broadly steady despite pockets of offshore constraint. LNG availability remains healthy, with a busy Atlantic slate into North-West Europe and further UK cargoes due. The EU’s decision to phase out Russian LNG by January 2027 sparked only a short-lived bounce, with participants judging the near-term supply effect to be limited. Political talk also added a thin risk premium as President Zelenskyy arrived in London for discussions on long-range missiles, which markets read as increasing the chance of further strikes on Russian energy assets. By the close, NBP Day-ahead was around 79p/therm, the November contract near 80p/therm, and the TTF front month close to €32/MWh.
Power followed gas, but remained wind-led. UK Day-ahead baseload eased as output recovered into the evening blocks, while the front month held near £80–£82/MWh. Forecasts point to wind running above seasonal norms through much of this week, trimming CCGT burn outside the lull periods. Interconnector imports from the continent continued to provide margin cover. Nuclear availability is set to step up into month-end after short outages, adding another cap to the topside unless renewables underperform.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent traded in the mid-$60s per barrel, with macro softness capping rallies. European carbon eased after recent gains, with EUAs near the high-€70s per tonne and UK allowances in the mid-£50s, keeping thermal costs elevated but not directional. Coal for 2026 delivery hovered close to $100 per tonne. Global LNG benchmarks were steady in the low-$11s/MMBtu, leaving European spot cargo values broadly in line with hubs.