Energy Market Update - 24 October 2025
Gas and power firmed on Thursday after the EU approved its latest energy sanctions. Gains were limited by strong storage and steady Norwegian flows. Sparks softened as gas rose faster than power.
Natural gas moved higher along the near curve. The EU’s nineteenth package will phase out Russian LNG purchases by January 2027, lifting forward risk. A separate plan to end long-term gas import contracts from January 2028 is still being negotiated. European storage sits just above 82% and injections are slowing. Norwegian nominations remain in the low 300s mcm per day, with brief outages flagged for late October but overall availability improving. LNG supply is ample, with a busy Atlantic schedule into North-West Europe and several UK cargoes due, which should help cap spikes unless offshore issues persist.
Power followed gas higher on the day, although the move was gentler and sparks eased. Day-ahead prices stayed sensitive to wind swings, while the curve gained with fuel and carbon. Forecasts point to stronger wind into the weekend, which should trim CCGT burn and soften the prompt outside low-wind hours. Interconnectors continued to provide margin cover and British nuclear output is set to step up into month end.
Other commodities were steady. Brent traded near $66/bbl. EUAs hovered around €78/t and UKAs near the mid-£50s/t, keeping thermal costs elevated without forcing the curve. Coal for 2026 delivery held close to $103/tonne. LNG markers were stable in the low $11s/MMBtu and US Henry Hub near $3/MMBtu. Near-term direction hinges on wind realisations, day-to-day Norwegian uptime and any follow-through from the EU sanctions timetable.