Energy Market Update - 23 October 2025
A quiet range day overall. Gas and power nudged around on higher wind and firm Norwegian supply, then steadied as new Russia sanctions hit the headlines. Ample storage kept any moves contained.
Natural gas drifted lower across much of the prompt before stabilising. TTF day-ahead eased on the day, while NBP day-ahead settled at 76.50p/therm. The UK curve also softened earlier, with November last indicated just under 80p/therm. Fundamentals were comfortable. Norwegian exports held in the low 300s mcm/day and UK balances opened long on higher UKCS output and steady Langeled receipts. This morning’s grid data showed demand at about 190 mcm, UKCS near 99 mcm, Langeled around 64 mcm and positive linepack, with LNG send-out steady and five UK cargoes scheduled over the next two weeks. Europe recorded its first weekly net storage withdrawal of the season, yet aggregate inventories remain near 83% and injections are now naturally slowing.
Power followed the gas tone but stayed wind led. UK day-ahead baseload fell to £78.02/MWh, down from £86.17/MWh the previous session, as wind picked up through the trading window. Curve activity was measured, with November baseload at £80.42/MWh and Q1-26 at £83.94/MWh by the last update. Interconnectors provided margin cover and nuclear availability remains uneven this week with short outages at Heysham, before units begin to ramp back up toward month-end. Forecasts point to stronger wind into the weekend, which should trim CCGT load outside any lull periods.
Other commodities and policy drivers added noise rather than direction. Brent firmed to $62.59/bbl, coal (API2 Cal-26) was $101.65/tonne, EUAs eased to €78.46/t and UKAs to £55.54/t. Policy risk ticked higher after the EU approved its latest sanctions package that targets Russian energy and sets an EU LNG import ban from 2027, alongside fresh US measures on Rosneft and Lukoil. Japan’s discussion on tighter forward-cover rules for retailers points to ongoing market design changes in Asia, although near-term European balances remain a function of weather and Norwegian reliability.