Energy Market Update - 22 October 2025
Gas and power nudged higher into early trade, but the range held. Storage sits near 83%, Norwegian flows are improving and a busy LNG slate is keeping gains contained.
Natural gas moved mixed on Tuesday, with the UK Day-ahead at 77.25p/therm and November near 81p/therm. The TTF front month held close to €31.5/MWh. Europe’s storage level is about 82.8% and injections are slowing as the season turns. Norwegian exports are normalising after maintenance, with total exits around the low 300s mcm per day and roughly mid-80s mcm to the UK. The UK system opened slightly short this morning on a dip in Langeled, though higher UKCS output and rising LNG send-out helped balance. Four UK LNG cargoes are scheduled over the next two weeks, alongside heavy arrivals into North-West Europe. In the Mediterranean, Egypt is increasing oil product purchases to free gas for LNG exports through winter, a small incremental positive for global supply.
Power followed gas higher on the day but stayed wind led. UK Day-ahead baseload settled at £86.17/MWh with peak at £99.85/MWh after a late recovery in renewables. November baseload hovered near £82/MWh and Q1-26 around £85/MWh. Forecasts show above-seasonal wind later this week, which should trim CCGT burn and cap the prompt outside lull periods. Interconnector flows from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to provide margin cover. British nuclear availability remains uneven, with short outages at Heysham this week before units start to step back up into month-end.
Elsewhere, Brent firmed to about $61/bbl. API2 Cal-26 coal held near $101/tonne. EU carbon traded just under €80/t while UK allowances were around the mid-£50s/t, leaving thermal costs elevated but not forcing the curve. In policy and company news, a possible cut to VAT on household energy bills has been flagged for the November Budget, and the owner of ScottishPower has explored options for its UK retail arm, underscoring ongoing pressure in the retail market.