Energy Market Update - 21 October 2025
Gas and power eased into Monday’s close as stronger wind forecasts and higher Norwegian nominations loosened balances. Storage remains high and LNG schedules are busy, keeping rallies brief despite cooler spells later this month.
Natural gas traded lower across the prompt and front month. NBP Day-ahead settled around 77.6p/therm, with November near 80p/therm, while the TTF front month was indicated close to €31.5/MWh. European inventories are just over 82% full with injections naturally slowing. UK balances opened comfortable on firmer Langeled receipts and steady UKCS output, and interconnectors helped manage a long system. Norwegian exports continue to normalise, with total exits around the low-310s mcm/day even as selected fields carry restrictions. LNG remains a stabiliser: a dense slate of Atlantic cargoes is due across North-West Europe, with additional UK arrivals pencilled, leaving the region well covered unless offshore issues re-emerge.
Power followed gas. UK Day-ahead baseload cleared near £76/MWh after wind rebuilt through the trading window, and front-month baseload edged down toward £82/MWh. Forecasts point to wind output running above seasonal norms later this week, which should trim CCGT burn and soften the prompt outside lull periods. Interconnector flows from the continent provided margin cover, while British nuclear output is set to improve into late October, further limiting upside unless renewables underperform.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent was close to $61/bbl as oversupply signals offset geopolitics. EUAs hovered just under €80/t and UK ETS near the mid-£50s/t, keeping thermal costs elevated without forcing the curve higher. Coal for 2026 delivery sat around $100/t. Global gas markers were steady, with JKM in the low $11s/MMBtu and US Henry Hub near $3/MMBtu, leaving the Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage tight and European LNG pricing anchored to hubs.
Overall, near-term direction will hinge on wind realisations and day-to-day Norwegian reliability, with storage and LNG keeping the broader tone cautious.