Energy Market Update - 20 October 2025
Gas and power softened as stronger wind forecasts and higher Norwegian flows loosened balances. Storage stays high and LNG arrivals are steady, keeping any rallies short.
Natural gas drifted lower. Front-week prices fell after wind for the week of 20 October was revised up to about 12.3 GW, around 10–20% above seasonal norms. Friday’s NBP Day-ahead settled at 79.40p/therm as supply lengthened. Norwegian exports were set to rise by roughly 14 mcm/day to about 305 mcm/day. European inventories sit a touch above 82%, with net injections slowing as the season turns. LNG flows remain firm, with a busy Atlantic schedule into North-West Europe and further UK cargoes pencilled. Traders still flag the risk of colder spells later this winter and the chance of extended Norwegian works, but current fundamentals are comfortable.
Power followed gas. UK Day-ahead baseload closed at £83.85/MWh on Friday as higher wind eased prompt tightness. Near-curve baseload contracts slipped with NBP, while spark spreads held steady. Forecasts point to wind output staying above normal through this week, which should curb CCGT burn outside any lull periods. Interconnector flows continued to balance the stack, with reduced French capacity still a watchpoint for intraday ranges.
Elsewhere, oil was little changed in the low to mid-$60s per barrel. Carbon eased from recent highs, with EUAs in the high €70s per tonne and UK allowances in the mid-£50s per tonne. Coal for 2026 delivery hovered near the low $100s per tonne. Global gas markers were stable around the low $11s per MMBtu in Asia and near $3 per MMBtu in the United States.
Overall, near-term direction hinges on wind realisations, Norwegian reliability and any early cold snaps, with storage and LNG keeping the broader tone cautious.