Energy Market Update - 30 September 2025
Front-month gas and power ticked up into Monday’s close but the range held. Storage above 82% and stronger Norwegian flows offset interconnector works; a wind rebuild should cap prompt prices.
Natural gas firmed late Monday, then eased back this morning. TTF October settled at €32.70/MWh (marked near €32/MWh today) and NBP October at 81.45p/therm. Nominations from Norway are indicated around 321 mcm/day as summer maintenance rolls off, restoring flexibility even as the system remains sensitive to ad-hoc curtailments. EU storage sits at 82.32% and injections are slowing seasonally. The UK–Continent gas interconnector enters its annual service window this week, a recurring autumn constraint that can temporarily shuffle NBP–TTF spreads without changing the broader supply picture. UK balances are orderly on steady pipeline receipts and modest demand with temperatures near seasonal norms; three UK LNG cargoes are pencilled over the next two weeks, while most arrivals continue to land on continental terminals.
Power prices followed gas on the curve but stayed wind-led on the prompt. Day-Ahead baseload finished in the mid-£90s/MWh on Monday as wind eased during core hours before recovering into late blocks. October baseload hovered around £75/MWh and the front season near £83/MWh. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands continued to provide margin cover, while nuclear availability remained broadly steady. Forecasts point to a pick-up in wind later this week, which should trim gas-for-power demand and cap the prompt unless offshore issues re-emerge.
Elsewhere, crude was a touch firmer with Brent near $70/bbl. Carbon stayed steady, with EUAs around €76/t—high enough to keep thermal costs elevated but not to break the recent range—while API2 Cal-26 coal held just above $102/t. Global gas markers were mixed: Henry Hub edged above $3/MMBtu, JKM sat in the low-$11s/MMBtu and European spot-linked cargo values tracked hubs near parity, leaving Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage tight and European balances chiefly a function of weather and Norwegian reliability.