Energy Market Update - 29 September 2025
Gas and power stayed range-bound. Storage near 82%, improving Norwegian exports and variable wind set the tone, while geopolitics added only a thin risk premium.
Natural gas traded steady to slightly firmer. The TTF front month was around €32/MWh this morning after Friday’s close near €32.3/MWh, with NBP October near 80p/therm and NBP Day-Ahead around 80.6p/therm. EU inventories advanced to roughly 82%, providing a solid pre-winter buffer. Norwegian nominations improved as the maintenance phase faded, with exports rebounding toward and above 300 mcm/day at times; earlier constraints at Kristin and Åsgard were reported resolved, though the system remains sensitive to technical updates. UK balances were orderly: the system opened long, domestic production was close to 90 mcm/day, Langeled inflows hovered in the mid-60s mcm/day, and modest LNG send-out persisted from Isle of Grain and South Hook. Interconnector flows continued to flex with the NBP–TTF spread. LNG schedules showed regular US cargoes into Northwest Europe through early October, keeping regional supply comfortable.
UK power largely mirrored gas. Day-Ahead baseload cleared near £80–81/MWh, easing as wind recovered into evening blocks. Along the curve, October baseload sat around £74–75/MWh and Winter-25 around £83/MWh. Recent generation data show wind as the dominant source over several days, limiting CCGT burn; forecasts point to below-seasonal wind at times this week before strengthening into the weekend, implying continued prompt volatility but limited follow-through on the curve while fuel and carbon anchor costs. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands, together with broadly steady nuclear availability, helped cap intraday spikes.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent traded close to $70/bbl, while European coal (API2 Cal-26) hovered near $102/t. European carbon remained firm, with EUA Dec-25 around €76/t; UK ETS Dec-25 printed near the mid-£50s/t. International gas markers were stable-to-softer: JKM in the low- to mid-$11s/MMBtu and Henry Hub just below $3/MMBtu. Geopolitical headlines—ranging from war-related risks to policy rhetoric—added noise but did not materially alter near-term balances given healthy storage and improving Norwegian availability.