Energy Market Update - 26 September 2025
Gas and power nudged higher as French LNG strikes and patchy Norwegian outages added risk, though robust storage and seasonal weather capped the upside.
European gas firmed on Thursday with supply headlines outweighing otherwise comfortable balances. French LNG terminals declared force majeure amid strike action, reducing near-term flexibility on the Continent. At the same time, Norwegian exports finally pushed back above 300 mcm/day as heavy maintenance faded, even as Åsgard remained curtailed and Kristin joined on unplanned outage, keeping the system sensitive to technical updates. EU storage remains a key anchor; an anomalous dip in the aggregate figure was attributed to a Romanian reporting glitch, with underlying inventories broadly steady in the low-80s percent. Front contracts reflected a slightly higher risk premium rather than a fundamental shift: TTF October settled at €32.46/MWh and NBP October at 81.06p/therm, with early indication this morning around €33/MWh for TTF. The near-term UK LNG slate is thin, so balancing continues to lean on Norwegian swing and interconnectors. The UK–Continent gas interconnector enters planned maintenance next week for three weeks, a recurring autumn feature that can shuffle prompt spreads and flows. Weather offers only a mild brake on prices: a cooler interlude persists into the weekend before reverting toward seasonal norms, with gas-for-power demand expected to lift episodically when wind troughs.
UK power tracked gas higher on the curve while the prompt moved with renewables. Day-ahead baseload firmed into the low £80s/MWh as wind eased through the trading window before late blocks softened on a renewable rebound. October baseload edged up to around £77/MWh and Winter ’25 also gained into the mid-£80s/MWh, underscoring gas’ lead over carbon in setting forward power. Next week’s wind output is projected 10–20% below seasonal norms at roughly 8.3 GW, while solar trends a touch above normal near 1.8 GW; that mix points to wider intraday ranges and a higher likelihood of CCGT burn during low-wind hours. Nuclear availability is set to improve into early October, which should temper spikes unless renewables under-deliver for an extended period. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands continue to provide margin cover.
Across the wider complex, oil held firm near recent highs as reports of restricted Russian fuel exports supported refined products and fed into crude, with Brent around $69/bbl. Carbon was broadly steady to slightly softer: EUAs hovered near €76/t while UKAs were little changed, providing only a light tailwind to winter power without forcing a break from the recent range. Coal (API2 Cal-26) stayed close to $102/t. LNG benchmarks were stable-to-firmer, with JKM near $11.28/MMBtu and European spot-linked cargo values tracking hubs around $11.10/MMBtu; the Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage remains narrow. In North America, Henry Hub edged toward $2.90/MMBtu as incremental export demand met resilient production.