Energy Market Update - 25 September 2025
Gas and power slipped back within recent ranges. Storage near 82% and improving Norwegian nominations outweighed patchy outages, while prompt power eased as wind recovered. Oil firmed; carbon softened.
Natural gas eased on Wednesday as comfortable fundamentals reasserted themselves. The TTF October contract settled at €31.90/MWh and NBP October at 79.49p/therm, with early indications placing TTF around €32/MWh this morning. EU inventories edged up to about 82% full, reinforcing the pre-winter cushion. Norwegian supply continued to normalise: total nominations were reported near 288 mcm/day versus roughly 266 mcm/day the day before, even though Åsgard remained on unplanned outage. UK balances were orderly. The system opened long with demand easing to 173 mcm/day; domestic production was just over 98 mcm/day, while pipeline receipts included 74 mcm/day via Langeled and 26 mcm/day via Vesterled/FLAGS. LNG send-out was steady near 8 mcm/day (c.5 mcm/day South Hook; c.3 mcm/day Isle of Grain), and exports to the Continent continued around 45 mcm/day through IUK and BBL. Montoir maintenance in France until mid-October keeps some continental regas slower, but overall European LNG receipts remain active. With late-September temperatures reverting toward seasonal norms after a short cool spell, and with NCS availability trending higher, near-curve risk premia remain modest.
UK power tracked gas lower on the curve while the prompt softened as wind recovered into the evening blocks. Day-Ahead baseload cleared around £81/MWh, down from c.£85/MWh previously. October baseload slipped to about £75/MWh and Winter ’25 to roughly £83/MWh, with the drift assisted by easier carbon. Nuclear availability was broadly steady and interconnectors from France and the Netherlands added margin cover, limiting spikes during renewable dips. Forecasts point to a choppy wind profile into the turn of the month; next week’s output is projected to average below seasonal norms, which could periodically lift gas-for-power when wind under-performs, but the broader balance remains comfortable.
Elsewhere in the complex, Brent crude firmed to around $69/bbl as supply signals outweighed softer macro data. European carbon eased, with EUAs near €76/t and UK allowances also softer, trimming some support for forward power yet leaving thermal costs elevated. Coal (API2 Cal-26) hovered around $102/tonne. LNG benchmarks softened alongside hubs: JKM traded near $11.22/MMBtu, while TTF-linked spot cargo values were just under $11/MMBtu. Henry Hub was marked near $2.86/MMBtu. Political rhetoric around Ukraine and discussions over Russian energy sanctions added only a thin risk premium, with traders still viewing winter outcomes as largely driven by weather and Norwegian reliability.