Energy Market Update - 24 September 2025
Gas and power nudged higher, supported by patchy Norwegian flows and political noise, but storage near 82% and warmer late-September forecasts kept gains contained.
Natural gas firmed modestly into Tuesday’s close. EU storage advanced to 81.96%, reinforcing a comfortable pre-winter buffer. Norwegian nominations softened to about 266 mcm/day from 277 mcm/day as Åsgard remained on unplanned outage, though operators still signal larger ramps later this week as curtailments fade. UK balances remain orderly: interconnectors have been flexible, domestic output steady and LNG send-out muted with only one UK arrival pencilled over the next fortnight, leaving more of the prompt balancing to Norwegian swing and cross-border flows. Front contracts reflected this mix of comfort and intermittent supply risk: TTF October settled at €32.27/MWh (from €31.84 on Monday) and was indicated around €32/MWh this morning; NBP October closed at 80.33p/therm. Short-range weather shows a brief cool spell before temperatures drift back toward seasonal norms into early October. With wind variable rather than persistently weak, near-curve risk premia remain modest unless Norwegian outages persist or colder conditions materialise.
UK power tracked gas higher on the curve while the prompt eased as wind recovered into the evening blocks. Day-ahead baseload printed around £85/MWh, down from £91/MWh the previous session, with imports from France and the Netherlands adding margin cover and nuclear output broadly stable. October baseload edged up to about £77/MWh and Winter-25 held near £84/MWh, mirroring the gentle firming in gas and a slightly stronger tone in carbon. Through the rest of the week a choppy wind profile is likely to keep intraday price ranges wide, but a marginally warmer bias into the turn of the month should limit underlying demand and cap prolonged spikes.
In the broader complex, Brent crude hovered near $68/bbl as recurring supply-risk headlines were balanced by soft macro signals and disciplined OPEC+ management. Coal for Cal-26 was steady just above $102/tonne. Carbon benchmarks stabilised, with EUAs around €77/t and UKAs broadly flat—enough to underpin forward power costs without forcing a decisive break higher. LNG markers were little changed: JKM held in the mid-$11s/MMBtu and European spot-linked cargo values tracked hub moves, leaving Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage narrow. In North America, Henry Hub eased to the high-$2.80s/MMBtu on resilient production. Political rhetoric following the UN address added only a thin risk premium to European energy markets, while reports of industrial incidents in Russia kept a mild geopolitical bid in oil and refined products without altering near-term gas balances.