Energy Market Update - 23 September 2025
Gas and power eased as comfortable storage, improving Norwegian flows and variable wind dominated; sanctions noise around Russian LNG drew little reaction, with weather broadly seasonal after a brief cool spell.
Natural gas drifted lower on Tuesday as fundamentals stayed benign. EU storage rose to 81.85%, keeping a robust cushion for autumn. Norwegian nominations were higher week-on-week at roughly 277 mcm/day as the maintenance season winds down, despite ongoing issues at Troll, Skarv and Åsgard. UK balances opened long with Langeled ramping, while LNG send-out was broadly flat and only one UK cargo pencilled over the next fortnight, leaving interconnectors and Norwegian swing to do more of the near-term balancing. Prices reflected the softer tone: TTF October settled at €31.84/MWh and was indicated around €32/MWh this morning; NBP October closed at 79.05p/therm. Policy headlines about a tougher EU line on Russian LNG have not shifted the winter supply calculus, and with temperatures set to dip mid-week before normalising by the weekend, near-curve risk premia continue to fade unless Norwegian outages persist or colder weather materialises.
UK power was firmer on the prompt but steady on the curve. Day-Ahead baseload printed in the low £90s/MWh as wind under-performed during parts of the trading window before recovering, while October held near £75/MWh and Winter-25 around £83/MWh. Renewables remain the key swing factor: below-average wind through sections of the next few days could lift gas-for-power temporarily, but forecasts point to a return toward seasonal norms that should re-loosen the stack. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands continued to provide margin cover, and British nuclear availability was broadly stable, limiting upside unless renewable output disappoints more persistently.
Elsewhere, oil eased again, with Brent marked in the mid-$66s/bbl as ample supply and weaker macro signals outweighed geopolitical risk. Coal for Cal-26 hovered just above $102/tonne. Carbon softened, with EUAs near €76/t and UKAs in the mid-£50s/t, keeping thermal costs elevated but without adding fresh upside to the curve. LNG benchmarks were a touch lower day-on-day: JKM sat around $11.3/MMBtu and TTF-linked spot cargo values near $11/MMBtu, while Henry Hub slipped to the low-$2.80s/MMBtu on resilient US output. Overall, comfortable storage, rising Norwegian nominations and a still-quiet UK LNG slate leave markets anchored, with prompt volatility driven primarily by wind.