Energy Market Update - 22 September 2025
Gas and power eased after mid-week gains as storage topped 80% and Norwegian nominations improved; sanctions headlines and a short, cooler spell offered only limited near-curve support.
Natural gas opened the week on a more comfortable footing. European inventories advanced to about 81.6% full, keeping winter targets on track. Norwegian exports are trending higher as maintenance winds down, with nominations climbing toward the high-280s mcm/day even as several assets (including Troll, Skarv, Oseberg and Åsgard) reported issues. UK balances reflected that improvement: domestic output rose to roughly 102 mcm/day, Langeled near 73 mcm/day and Vesterled/FLAGS around 16 mcm/day, while the UK continued to export to the Continent amid a periodic NBP discount to TTF. The near-term UK LNG slate remains bare for the next fortnight, so interconnectors and Norwegian swing carry more of the balancing burden. Prices stayed contained: TTF October settled at €32.31/MWh and opened around €32/MWh this morning; NBP October finished at 80.05p/therm, with Day-Ahead near 80p/therm. Policy noise around a tougher EU stance on Russian LNG has not materially changed winter supply calculus so far. Weather adds a modest bid - temperatures dip below seasonal norms for several days - yet forecasts show a return toward average into early October, limiting sustained upside.
UK power mirrored gas, with prompt volatility tightly linked to wind. Day-Ahead baseload recovered to the low £80s/MWh as wind eased during the trading window before picking up later, while the curve barely moved: October hovered near £76/MWh and Winter-25 in the mid-£80s/MWh. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands provided margin cover when renewables dipped, and British nuclear availability was broadly steady, curbing sharp spikes unless wind under-delivers for an extended period. The outlook for the rest of the week points to a cooler interlude and a choppy wind profile - conditions that keep the prompt reactive but leave the curve anchored to gas and carbon.
Elsewhere, the broader complex was steady. Brent traded around $67/bbl as geopolitical premia offset soft macro indicators and disciplined OPEC+ supply. European coal for Cal-26 held close to $102/tonne. Carbon was broadly unchanged, with EUAs near €78/t and UKAs stable, providing a mild underpin to forward power and gas costs. In global gas, JKM softened into the low-$11s/MMBtu on muted Asian buying, European spot-linked cargo values tracked TTF near parity, and Henry Hub dipped back below $3/MMBtu, underscoring comfortable North American supply.