Energy Market Update - 19 September 2025
Energy markets saw modest gains yesterday, supported by fresh Norwegian outages and ongoing policy discussions in Brussels, while EU storage progress and milder temperatures helped contain upside.
European gas prices firmed slightly, with the TTF front month settling at €32.95/MWh and the NBP equivalent at 81.50p/therm, both moving higher from the previous day. The gains followed unplanned outages at Kollsnes and Troll, which together cut more than 25 mcm/day from Norwegian flows. Although nominations for today point to partial recovery at 246 mcm/day, the incident underlined the fragility of supply during the final stretch of seasonal maintenance. UK system demand was steady at around 137 mcm, with a long opening balance helped by stronger domestic output and interconnector imports from the continent. LNG send-out was lower, with Isle of Grain and South Hook together contributing under 8 mcm/day. Meanwhile, European storage continued injections, reaching 81.09% fullness, though Ukraine remains below 25%, a gap that could re-emerge as a regional concern heading into winter.
UK power tracked gas higher, with day-ahead baseload rebounding to £77/MWh from £48/MWh the day before, reflecting lower renewable generation for much of the session before wind picked up late in the day. The front month contract closed at £77.18/MWh, while the Winter 2025 contract strengthened to £84.94/MWh. Curve support was reinforced by firmer carbon, with EUAs moving back toward €78/t and UK ETS allowances steady near £58/t. Looking ahead, forecast temperatures are set to dip sharply early next week, falling as much as 7°C below seasonal norms. This will raise LDZ demand and may lift gas-for-power use if wind output underperforms. Forecast data show a volatile renewable profile into the weekend, with intraday swings likely to drive continued spot price variability.
In wider commodities, Brent crude eased to $67.44/bbl, down slightly as markets weighed U.S. interest rate cuts against geopolitical risks from the Black Sea and Middle East. European coal for Cal-26 remained firm at $103.73/t, while carbon provided modest support across the energy complex. In LNG, JKM rose to $11.53/MMBtu, broadly in line with TTF spot equivalence at $11.28/MMBtu. Henry Hub softened to $3.10/MMBtu as U.S. output held strong.