Energy Market Update - 18 September 2025
Gas and power were largely range-bound, with storage above 80%, Norwegian flows edging higher, and wind swings driving the UK prompt. Geopolitics lingered, but fundamentals kept curves anchored.
Natural gas closed marginally firmer before slipping back into its recent band. TTF October settled at €32.40/MWh and NBP October at 79.52p/therm, with early trading marking TTF around €33/MWh. Norwegian nominations held near 234–235 mcm/day as maintenance tapered, keeping Langeled near 50 mcm/day. EU storage advanced to roughly 81% full, a key cushion even as Ukrainian inventories sit below one quarter. UK balances remained comfortable: system demand hovered in the high-130s mcm, domestic output was around 75–78 mcm/day, and LNG send-out rose to roughly 14 mcm/day from South Hook and Isle of Grain. Exports to the Continent were robust (circa 40–45 mcm/day), reflecting wider regional comfort. TransMed works temporarily halved Algerian flows into Italy, a reminder that localised outages can tighten specific hubs despite a well-supplied Northwest Europe. With temperatures dipping briefly early next week before reverting to seasonal norms, the near curve remains anchored unless policy headlines shift risk premia.
Power prices continued to mirror gas and renewables. UK Day-Ahead baseload fell back to about £48/MWh as wind recovered late in the session, reversing earlier tightness when output dipped. Curve pricing was steadier: October baseload traded near £75/MWh and Winter-25 around £84/MWh, with carbon and fuel costs providing support even as prompt values oscillate with wind. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands helped smooth the stack, while French industrial action trimmed around 1.5–2 GW of thermal and nuclear capacity—a mild supportive factor for regional prices during renewable lulls. Forecasts point to choppy wind through the week before easing into month-end, keeping spot volatility elevated but leaving the curve largely governed by gas and carbon.
Across other commodities, crude retained a modest geopolitical premium: Brent hovered near $68/bbl as Black Sea and Middle-East risks offset softer product demand. Coal for 2026 delivery was a touch over $102/tonne. Carbon consolidated, with EUA Dec-25 just under €77/t and UK ETS near £57/t, limiting downside on forward power even as the prompt softened. In LNG, JKM held in the mid-$11s/MMBtu and European spot-linked cargo values stayed close to TTF parity, leaving Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage mostly closed. Henry Hub traded around $3.10/MMBtu, underscoring comfortable North American supply.