Energy Market Update - 17 September 2025
Gas and power were broadly range-bound. Storage above 80%, steadier Norwegian nominations and variable wind kept intraday moves contained despite ongoing geopolitical watchpoints.
Natural gas nudged slightly higher but stayed within recent bands. The TTF front-month settled at €32.33/MWh (from €32.15) and the NBP front-month at 79.30p/therm (from 78.54p). EU storage reached 80.83%, offering a solid buffer even as Germany’s Rehden continues to lag. Norwegian flows were nominated at 235 mcm/day with no new unplanned outages reported, while one LNG cargo is scheduled for the UK over the next fortnight; NBP spot printed around 81p/therm. Early-week temperature forecasts show a brief dip below seasonal norms before recovering, and markets are attentive to any policy signals during the US state visit to London. This morning, the TTF front-month traded near €32, unchanged.
UK power reflected shifting wind. After recent strength, wind eased today, lifting the Day-Ahead baseload to about £75/MWh versus £30/MWh earlier in the week, with prices expected to soften again later as wind picks up. The forward curve was steady: the UK front-month baseload held around £75/MWh and the front season near £84/MWh. Intermittent wind through the remainder of the week suggests choppy prompt pricing, while fundamentals otherwise remain stable.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent crude edged up to roughly $68/bbl. European carbon firmed to about €78/t. In global gas, Henry Hub traded near $3.10/MMBtu, JKM around $11.45/MMBtu, and the TTF equivalent close to $11.24/MMBtu. Overall, comfortable storage, moderated Norwegian supply and variable renewables continue to anchor prices as attention shifts to late-September weather and policy headlines.