Energy Market Update - 16 September 2025
Gas and power eased as strong wind and storage above 80% curbed demand. Improving Norwegian availability and steady LNG reinforced a soft tone despite ongoing geopolitical watchpoints.
Natural gas drifted lower on Monday amid comfortable fundamentals. The TTF October contract settled at €32.15/MWh, with the NBP October equivalent at 78.54p/therm; UK Day-Ahead closed at 78.00p/therm. European storage surpassed 80%, helping anchor the curve even as German sites continue to trail the regional average. Norwegian exports were nominated around 232–236 mcm/day, with Langeled near 50 mcm/day; capacity is expected to rise later this week as Troll and Kollsnes maintenance winds down. UK system demand was about 133 mcm, well below seasonal norms, supported by domestic production near 74–75 mcm/day and higher LNG send-out of roughly 12–14 mcm/day from Isle of Grain and South Hook. Two additional LNG cargoes are scheduled for UK terminals in the next fortnight, alongside steady arrivals at Dunkirk, Zeebrugge and Gate. Muted Asian buying kept global balances loose, with JKM near $11.3/MMBtu and Northwest Europe spot cargoes around $10.5/MMBtu. Mild mid-September temperatures further limited heating sensitivity, leaving Winter-25 around 85–86p/therm.
UK power prices fell on the prompt while the curve held steady. Day-Ahead baseload cleared at £28.65/MWh as wind generation surged; forward contracts were broadly unchanged, with October around £74/MWh and Winter-25 near £83/MWh. Wind output averaged about 19 GW on Monday - over 60% of the stack - with solar and hydro adding roughly 7%, curtailing CCGT to close to 10% and reducing gas-for-power demand. Interconnector flows remained robust, tempering volatility. Continental spot contracts also softened on strong renewables, though planned 24-hour strike action in France from Wednesday evening could temporarily trim nuclear availability and lift regional prices if extended.
Broader commodities were mixed. Brent crude was $67.44/bbl as traders weighed the impact of continued drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure against a softer macro backdrop. Coal (API2 Cal-26) edged down to $101.68/tonne. Carbon firmed, with EUA Dec-25 at €76.75/t and UK ETS Dec-25 at £56.79/t, providing some underlying support to forward power despite cheap prompt. With EU storage now above 80%, Norwegian maintenance nearing completion and additional LNG due, markets remain range-bound and focused on near-term weather and any policy signals from Brussels this week.