Energy Market Update - 15 September 2025
Markets ended last week slightly firmer, balancing storage and steady LNG against Norwegian maintenance and geopolitical noise; UK power spot slumped on wind, but forward gas and power stayed resilient.
Gas contracts edged up into Friday’s close while remaining range-bound. TTF October settled at €32.66/MWh and NBP October at 80.16p/therm, with NBP Day-Ahead at 79.00p/therm. Norwegian nominations improved to about 236 mcm/day as Dvalin returned, though broader shelf maintenance still limits exports. Constraints on Langeled are slated to ease from 18 September, potentially adding around 21 mcm/day. The UK system opened long, supported by domestic production near 75 mcm/day and higher LNG send-out of roughly 12 mcm/day from Isle of Grain and South Hook, with two additional UK cargoes scheduled in the next fortnight. EU storage remains the key anchor: aggregated inventories were reported near 79.6% but surpass 80% once missing Belgian data are included; Germany’s Rehden continues to lag materially. Winter 2025 held around 86.5p/therm as participants retain a seasonal risk premium. Geopolitics remained a background driver, with sanction rhetoric intensifying and further incidents reported around NATO borders.
UK power showed a split between spot weakness and curve firmness. Exceptionally high wind pushed Day-Ahead baseload as low as £12/MWh on Friday before rebounding to £44.69/MWh at the latest settlement. Forward prices were steadier: October baseload settled at £74.25/MWh and Winter 2025 at £83.84/MWh. Renewables are expected to remain strong - average generation around 15 GW this week - limiting near-term gas-for-power demand and keeping spot values volatile. Interconnector imports remained a stable component of GB supply, while French nuclear availability stayed uneven amid recent outages, sustaining modest regional risk premia even as wind caps prompt prices.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent crude firmed to about $67/bbl as markets weighed Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure against softer demand indicators. Coal (API2 Cal-26) was steady near $102.44/tonne. Carbon paused after recent gains, with EUAs at €75.77/tonne and UK ETS at £56.11/tonne, helping to support forward power despite cheap prompt. In global gas, JKM hovered around $11.36/MMBtu and Henry Hub near $2.94/MMBtu, broadly in line with TTF-linked equivalents. Policy attention turns to Brussels this week, where EU environment ministers will debate 2040 climate targets that could shape medium-term carbon and power pricing signals.