Energy Market Update - 12 September 2025
Prices eased after mid-week gains as storage neared 80% and Norwegian maintenance peaked; geopolitics stayed tense but strong wind forecasts and steady LNG flows softened near-term risk.
Natural gas traded lower to sideways as fundamentals remained comfortable. EU storage rose to just under 80%, with injections continuing despite reduced Norwegian exports during peak maintenance and a full shutdown at Dvalin. At the time of writing, the TTF front month was around €32.4/MWh, while the NBP October contract traded near 79.5p/therm and Winter-25 around 86p/therm. UK system indicators were benign: demand close to 122 mcm/day, UKCS output near 72 mcm/day, and steady Langeled receipts around 48 mcm/day. LNG send-out stayed modest from South Hook and Isle of Grain, with exports via IUK and BBL reflecting continental premiums. Political risk lingered after a drone incursion over Polish airspace led allies to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank and as EU capitals worked on further Russia sanctions, though price impact was limited.
UK power followed gas lower on the prompt, with the Day-Ahead baseload settling in the high-£30s/MWh. Curve prices eased but were resilient: the front-month baseload traded in the mid-£70s/MWh and Winter-25 around the mid-£80s/MWh amid thin liquidity. Near-term wind expectations remain choppy—stronger generation is projected next week before easing—keeping gas-for-power demand variable. Nuclear availability is gradually improving from planned outages, while interconnectors continue to balance flows with neighbouring markets.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent crude dipped to the mid-$60s/bbl as supply expectations outweighed geopolitical noise. European carbon prices remained elevated in the mid-€70s/t, providing some support to forward power costs; UK ETS values also stayed firm. Coal for 2026 delivery hovered near $102/t. In global gas, JKM was around $11.5/MMBtu and Henry Hub just under $3/MMBtu. LNG schedules point to multiple cargoes into Northwest European terminals in the coming days, adding to regional supply and helping anchor prices despite ongoing Norwegian works.