Energy Market Update - 11 September 2025
Markets were little changed. Gas held its range as storage neared 80% despite lower Norwegian flows, while strong wind pushed UK day-ahead power sharply lower. Geopolitical rhetoric kept risk premia contained.
European natural gas was broadly steady. The TTF front month settled at €33.12/MWh (from €32.93) and was quoted around €33 this morning; NBP front month closed at 81.09p/therm (from 80.78p). Norwegian exports dipped after an unplanned outage at Dvalin and ongoing maintenance, with nominations near 225mcm/day versus 240mcm/day previously. EU inventories continued to build, reaching 79.74% full, though Germany’s Rehden site remains a drag at just 27% after another failed capacity auction. UK-bound LNG remains light with no new cargoes signalled in the next fortnight; domestic send-out is steady around 8mcm/day. Positioning turned slightly more supportive after the first increase in speculative net length in weeks (up ~11TWh). Spot demand effects were mixed: cooler but still mild weather, combined with higher wind, limited gas-for-power burn, leaving NBP spot around 83p/therm.
UK power weakened on the prompt but was relatively stable on the curve. Day-ahead baseload plunged to £44/MWh (from £75/MWh) as wind output surged. Forward prices eased only marginally, with the front-month baseload at £75/MWh (from £76/MWh) and Winter-25 steady near £85/MWh. Recent strength in GB wind has also been echoed on the Continent, softening neighbouring day-ahead markets. Looking ahead, wind is forecast to remain well above average into next week, which should continue to cap CCGT generation when realised. Interconnectors remain pivotal for balancing during renewable swings.
Commodities were mixed. Brent crude edged up to $67/bbl (from $66/bbl). European carbon held firm at €77/t. US Henry Hub eased to $3.03/MMBtu, while Asian LNG (JKM) was roughly stable at $11.34/MMBtu. The TTF gas equivalent printed near $11.37/MMBtu. With storage nearing 80%, Norwegian maintenance largely pre-flagged and UK LNG quiet, markets remain range-bound and increasingly focused on early-winter temperature risk.