Energy Market Update - 10 September 2025
Gas held broadly flat while UK power eased on stronger wind. Storage progressed towards 80% and Norwegian flows ticked up, capping geopolitical risk from the Middle East and sanctions talk.
Natural gas prices were little changed after a choppy session. The TTF front month settled at €32.93/MWh (from €33.06) and was around €33 this morning, while the NBP front month closed at 80.78p/therm (from 81.02p). Norwegian export nominations rose to 245mcm/day (from 240), though flows remain constrained by planned maintenance. EU storage increased to 79.63% full, but Germany’s Rehden continues to lag at 27% after another failed capacity auction. With no UK-bound LNG cargoes expected in the next fortnight, British sendout stays modest, although continental regas remains active. Geopolitics stayed in the background: Israel’s strikes in Qatar and renewed sanctions rhetoric kept a small risk premium in nearby contracts, while Hungary confirmed a 10-year gas supply deal with Shell, signalling incremental diversification away from Russian molecules. Near-term demand effects are muted by below-average temperatures that curb cooling requirements and by stronger wind lowering gas-for-power burn; NBP spot printed near 81p/therm.
UK power prices slipped on the prompt but were steadier along the curve. The UK base spot fell to about £75/MWh (from £85/MWh) on improved wind conditions, while the front-month baseload edged to £76/MWh (from £77/MWh) and the front season held around £85/MWh. Widespread European wind strength also softened neighbouring markets. French industrial action earlier in the week reduced nuclear availability and disrupted some gas-storage maintenance, but the impact has been contained; any extension would add localised tightness. With wind expected to stay firm in the near term before easing, CCGT generation should remain variable, and system balancing will continue to lean on interconnectors when renewable output dips.
Other commodities were broadly steady. Brent crude hovered near $66/bbl as OPEC+ supply expectations offset geopolitical tensions. European carbon remained firm, with EUAs around €77/t, supporting forward power costs even as fuel prices softened. International gas markers were close to flat: Henry Hub at about $3.12/MMBtu, JKM near $11.33/MMBtu, and the TTF equivalent around $11.02/MMBtu. Overall, comfortable storage levels and well-flagged Norwegian works keep markets range-bound, with attention shifting to late-September flow recovery and early-winter temperature risk.