Energy Market Update - 09 September 2025
Gas and power firmed as sanction risks and cooler forecasts lifted near-curve contracts, while Norwegian maintenance kept exports constrained. Stronger UK wind later this week is set to cap gas-for-power demand.
Natural gas prices rose after several quiet sessions. The TTF front month settled at €33.06/MWh (from €31.97), while the NBP front month closed at 81.02p/therm (from 77.89p). Cooler-than-normal temperature revisions for the next fortnight reduce cooling demand but raise heating sensitivity, supporting prompt and near-curve pricing. Norwegian exports remain throttled by planned works, with total flows around 240–249mcm/day and UK receipts reduced by Langeled maintenance. EU storage advanced to 79.49% full, leaving winter targets on track and helping contain the upside. Geopolitically, the US signalled a possible “second phase” of sanctions on Russia and its oil buyers, and European leaders are in Washington for talks; markets also noted Hungary’s move to secure a new long-term gas deal from a “Western” source. With no UK-bound LNG cargoes expected in the next two weeks, continental regas and healthy inventories continue to balance the system.
UK power followed gas higher on the curve, with near-curve baseload gaining around £1/MWh. The UK base spot eased to £85/MWh (from £87/MWh) as wind conditions improved versus the end of last week, but the front-month baseload lifted to £77/MWh (from £74/MWh) and the front season to £85/MWh (from £84/MWh). Wind output is forecast well above average in the coming days before receding again, limiting short-term CCGT burn; temperatures dip below seasonal norms late week before normalising. French industrial action earlier in the week trimmed thermal and nuclear availability and contributed to risk premia, but the immediate impact has faded as output normalises.
Other commodities were steady to firmer. Brent traded near $66/bbl as the market weighed an OPEC+ supply increase against potential tighter sanctions on Russia. European carbon strengthened, with EUAs around €77/t, lending support to forward power and gas. Coal remained near $103/t. Global gas benchmarks edged up: NBP spot near 81p/therm; JKM around $11.35/MMBtu; Henry Hub about $3.09/MMBtu; and the TTF gas-equivalent near $11.02/MMBtu.