Energy Market Update - 08 September 2025
Gas and power edged lower within a tight range as storage neared 80% and Norwegian maintenance capped flows; oil softened on OPEC+ supply signals, while carbon strengthened.
European natural gas eased into Friday’s close before stabilising this morning. EU storage rose to 79.24%, reinforcing winter readiness despite curtailed Norwegian exports holding near 246 mcm/day through planned works. UK-directed receipts were steady, with no new LNG cargoes signalling for UK ports in the next fortnight, although regas across continental terminals remained healthy and Australia’s cancelled North West Shelf maintenance added to near-term global availability. Asian spot demand stayed muted. On the curve, TTF front month settled at €31.97/MWh (from €32.41), while NBP front month closed at 77.89p/therm (from 79.12p). Fundamentals remain balanced: mixed September temperatures and higher wind later this week temper gas-for-power demand, offsetting the impact of throttled Norwegian flows.
UK power tracked gas but showed divergent moves between prompt and curve. The UK base spot firmed to £87/MWh (from £83), reflecting early-week wind variability, while front-month baseload eased to £74/MWh (from £75) and the front season nudged up to £84/MWh (from £83). Stronger wind is expected toward the end of the week and again next week, likely limiting CCGT burn after brief dips. Across the Channel, strike action in France earlier in the week trimmed nuclear and CCGT availability and briefly firmed regional risk premia, but the effect faded as output and forecasts normalised.
Elsewhere in the complex, Brent slipped to $66/bbl as expectations of an OPEC+ production increase weighed on sentiment. Carbon benchmarks stayed firm, with EUAs up to €76/t (from €75), providing a modest offset to weaker fuels on forward power. Coal was broadly steady around $103/t. Global gas markers were stable: Henry Hub hovered near $3.05/MMBtu; JKM was about $11.30/MMBtu; and the TTF equivalent was roughly $11.02/MMBtu. With Norwegian maintenance largely pre-flagged and storage progress intact, markets remain range-bound, and attention is turning to late-September resumption of flows and early winter temperature risk.