Energy Market Update - 05 September 2025
Gas and power were broadly steady to slightly firmer. Norwegian maintenance and French strike action added a mild risk premium, but healthy storage and soft LNG balances kept gains contained.
Geopolitics added background risk: weekend strikes on Ukrainian power assets and talk among US and European leaders of possible broader sanctions on Russian energy. On prices, the TTF front month settled at €32.41/MWh (from €32.11), while NBP front month closed at 79.12p/therm (from 78.46p). This morning, TTF traded around €32 with NBP spot near 78p/therm. LNG send-out in Britain remained modest around 8 mcm/day, with no UK cargoes due in the near term, though continental arrivals are active.
UK power mirrored gas but with notable prompt strength. Improved wind eased spot levels mid-week, yet near-curve baseload contracts lifted by roughly £1/MWh as traders priced French risks and firm carbon. Day-ahead baseload cleared around £83/MWh (from £77/MWh), front-month at £75/MWh (from £74/MWh) and the front season near £83/MWh. In France, the final day of industrial action removed about 2.3 GW of nuclear and 0.8 GW of CCGT capacity—around 7.6% of national demand—with unions due to decide on any continuation. The strike also posed a limited near-term risk to Dunkirk LNG operations. Looking ahead, UK wind output is forecast to be well above average into next week, which should cap gas-for-power demand when realised; nuclear generation is expected to improve as planned maintenance winds down.
Broader commodities were mixed. Brent eased to about $67/bbl as ample supply and OPEC+ expectations outweighed recent US inventory draws. European carbon firmed, with EUAs near €75/t and the UK scheme also higher, narrowing the spread and offering light support to forward power. Global gas benchmarks were little changed: Henry Hub around $3.07/MMBtu, JKM close to $11.25/MMBtu and the TTF equivalent near $11.07/MMBtu.