Energy Market Update - 01 October 2025
Gas and power softened at winter’s start as healthy storage, easing Norwegian maintenance and seasonal weather kept the balance comfortable; brief NCS hiccups and UK interconnector works nudged intraday sentiment.
Natural gas eased as the new delivery season began, reflecting comfortable stocks and improving supply. EU inventories sit just above 82%, with Germany still lagging the bloc average. Norwegian maintenance is stepping down sharply versus late September, though short-lived curtailments at Troll and reduced capacity at Nyhamna clipped flows this morning. Even so, nominations are materially higher week on week and the UK system opened long on stronger Langeled receipts and steady domestic production. Interconnector dynamics matched the regional picture: BBL flipped to import while IUK remains offline for planned work until 20 October. Near-curve prices reflected this backdrop, with TTF front month indicated around €31.4/MWh and NBP Nov-25 near 80p/therm; yesterday’s NBP Day-Ahead cleared in the mid-70s p/therm. The mild, briefly warmer UK temperature profile limits early-season heating load, and with storage comfortable, risk premia remain modest unless Norwegian issues persist.
UK power tracked gas lower on the curve while the prompt faded as wind recovered into late blocks. Day-Ahead baseload cleared in the low £80s/MWh range after earlier spikes, with interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands adding margin cover. On the curve, October baseload was broadly steady around the mid-£70s/MWh and the front season held range-bound near the low-£80s/MWh as carbon stayed stable. A structural change on the continent also landed today with quarter-hour day-ahead coupling across several EU markets (Great Britain excluded), a tweak that should gradually sharpen cross-border price signals and intraday balancing. Looking ahead, wind output is forecast to rebuild from Thursday through Monday, pointing to softer prompt power and lower CCGT burn, while nuclear availability—at 2025 lows—begins to step up from tomorrow.
Other commodities were quiet. Brent was little changed around the high-$60s/bbl as the prospect of incremental OPEC+ supply met tepid demand signals. API2 Cal-26 coal hovered close to recent averages and provided no fresh direction. Carbon benchmarks were broadly flat, keeping thermal generation costs elevated but not decisive for the power curve. With Atlantic–Pacific LNG arbitrage narrow and cargoes still skewed toward continental regas sites, European balances should remain chiefly a function of weather and day-to-day Norwegian reliability through the opening days of winter.