Energy Market Update - 02 October 2025
Gas and power slipped at winter’s start as strong storage, improving Norwegian flows and a firmer wind outlook kept balances comfortable. Prices stayed within recent ranges.
Natural gas eased on healthy fundamentals. EU storage is a little above 82%. Norwegian nominations improved as planned work tapered, although brief issues at Troll and Nyhamna clipped capacity at times. The UK system opened long with demand below seasonal norms, higher Langeled receipts and positive linepack. LNG send-out from Isle of Grain and South Hook was light, and interconnector activity was limited. NBP Day-Ahead settled near 75.6p/therm. NBP November traded around 80p/therm. The TTF front month was close to €31.3/MWh. A short warmer spell in the UK kept early-season heating load in check.
UK power followed gas while remaining wind led. Day-Ahead baseload cleared in the low £80s/MWh after wind recovered into the late blocks. October baseload held near £75/MWh. The front-season strip stayed in the low to mid £80s/MWh. Imports from France and the Netherlands added margin cover. Nuclear output remained subdued. Forecasts show wind rebuilding from late week into early next week, which should trim CCGT burn and limit prompt gains.
Other commodities were steady. Brent crude traded in the high $60s per barrel. EU carbon was broadly flat around the mid €70s per tonne and UK allowances held in the mid £50s per tonne. API2 Cal-26 coal hovered just above the low $100s per tonne. JKM sat in the low $11s per MMBtu. Henry Hub was a little above $3 per MMBtu.