Energy Market Update - 03 October 2025
Spot gas and power fell on system oversupply and rising wind. Forward prices were steady to slightly higher as supply risk faded and storage stayed strong.
Natural gas eased on Thursday as the UK system stayed long. Exports to mainland Europe were constrained by IUK maintenance and BBL operating in forward flow, which limited reverse exports. Storage injections rose as a result. Norwegian exports recovered toward normal levels after recent outages, with nominations lifting above 300 mcm per day despite brief curtailments. EU inventories increased to about 82.6%, though Germany lags the bloc average. Storm Amy lifted wind output and cut gas-for-power demand. At the close, NBP Day-Ahead was 67.83p/therm. The NBP November front month was around 80.3p/therm. TTF front month traded near €31.4/MWh.
UK power tracked the gas move on the prompt and held firm on the curve. Day-Ahead baseload cleared at about £52/MWh as wind strengthened into the evening. Forecasts point to very windy conditions into the weekend, with possible turbine curtailment in the windiest locations, followed by typical seasonal output next week. October baseload was broadly stable near the mid-£70s/MWh, while November moved around £80.5/MWh. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands added margin cover. Nuclear availability was low but steady and is expected to improve from early October.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent settled near $64/bbl after a sharp weekly decline on expectations of higher OPEC+ supply. EU carbon firmed to about €77/t while UK allowances hovered in the mid-£50s/t. API2 Cal-26 coal was close to $101/t. In LNG, Asian JKM stayed in the low $11s/MMBtu. UK send-out was modest, though continental regas activity picked up as French strike disruption eased and more cargoes were scheduled for Northwest Europe. Henry Hub was a little above $3/MMBtu.