Energy Market Update - 06 October 2025
Gas and power softened as high weekend wind met improving Norwegian flows. Storage stayed strong. Prices held within recent ranges despite choppy headlines.
Natural gas opened weaker on comfortable balances. The UK system started long, with demand at about 179 mcm and higher pipeline receipts. UKCS output was near 95 mcm. Langeled delivered about 62.5 mcm and Vesterled around 8 mcm. Interconnectors were quiet, with BBL showing net export from Britain and IUK at zero. EU storage remained above 80%. NBP Day-Ahead last settled at 70.66p/therm, while the morning indication moved higher. Front-month NBP traded near 80p/therm. On the Continent, nominations from Norway recovered toward the low 300s mcm per day after recent compressor issues, although brief curtailments continued to surface.
UK power eased on the prompt and held firm along the curve. Day-Ahead baseload was indicated around the high £80s/MWh after a weekend of very strong wind. Saturday saw wind covering about 65% of the generation mix and CCGT near 12%, which suppressed prompt prices. This morning’s curve was steady to slightly firmer: November baseload around £82/MWh and Q1-26 close to £83/MWh. Interconnectors from France and the Netherlands provided margin cover. Nuclear output stayed low but stable, with planned returns expected in mid-October.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent was about $64.5/bbl. Coal (API2 Cal-26) was near $101/t. EUAs rose to roughly €79/t and UKAs to about £57/t. Global gas benchmarks showed JKM near $11/MMBtu and Henry Hub a little above $3/MMBtu.