Energy Market Update - 07 October 2025
Gas and power firmed as lower wind and Ukraine risk lifted the prompt. Storage near 83% and rising Norwegian flows limited gains. Volatility looks headline driven, with wind improving later.
Natural gas rallied on Monday. UK day-ahead rose into the mid-80s p/therm, with NBP November near 80p/therm and the TTF front month indicated around €31.4/MWh. Europe’s storage is about 82.9%, with injections slowing seasonally. Norwegian nominations held in the low-300s mcm/day despite brief issues at Troll and ongoing work at Vesterled. UK balances opened comfortable. UKCS output was firmer, Langeled receipts rose, LNG send-out stayed near 8 mcm/day, and linepack was positive. Interconnector flows were neutral to import-leaning as IUK remains on planned maintenance and BBL hovered around flat. A dense Atlantic LNG slate for Northwest Europe this week should help cap any outage-driven spikes.
UK power moved higher with gas on the near curve, while the prompt reflected tighter margins from weaker wind. Day-ahead baseload cleared in the high £80s/MWh. November baseload edged up and winter strips firmed alongside carbon, whereas summer gained less. Interconnector imports from the Netherlands and Belgium provided cover during the evening ramp. Guidance points to stronger wind from late week, which should reduce CCGT burn and soften prompt prices. French nuclear availability is set to improve into mid-October, adding further flexibility when renewables recover.
Oil was steady, with Brent in the mid-$60s per barrel. Coal for Cal-26 traded just under $100 per tonne. European carbon stayed firm in the high €70s per tonne, with UK allowances around the mid-£50s per tonne. LNG benchmarks were stable to higher. JKM sat in the low $11s per MMBtu and European spot-linked cargo values tracked hubs near parity. With seasonal weather and stronger Norwegian supply, near-curve moves should stay episodic and headline sensitive.