Energy Market Report - 29 June 2026
Energy markets were dominated last week by geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz, where an escalation between the US and Iran briefly inflated a risk premium before both sides agreed over the weekend to halt hostilities and resume talks. Crude bore the brunt as that premium unwound, while gas and power held firmer and carbon eased.
Natural Gas
UK and Continental gas firmed into Friday's close and again this morning, supported less by physical tightness than by a residual geopolitical premium and a firmer near-term balance. An unplanned process outage at Åsgard cut Norwegian output by around 6 mcm/day - expected to clear by tomorrow - while softer early-week wind and solar lifted gas-for-power demand. Against that, deliveries to the UK strengthened, with Langeled nominations rising to around 64 mcm/day and the system opening some 14 mcm/day long, leaving it comfortably supplied. The NBP day-ahead settled at 98.00 p/therm and TTF day-ahead near €40/MWh, both little changed on Friday, with the NBP front-month just under 98 p/therm and Winter 26 around 103 p/therm. LNG send-out into the UK held at roughly 8 mcm/day and the north-west European arrivals schedule remains well supplied, even as aggregate regional receipts eased to circa 296 mcm/day. The JKM benchmark continued to price at a premium to TTF, at about $15.5/MMBtu.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas, with the forward curve firmer on Friday and prompt prices following this morning. Day-ahead baseload settled at £85.67/MWh, though that reflects weekend delivery rather than a directional shift - into Monday, weekday demand and softer wind lifted UK baseload back toward £112/MWh. Forward baseload was firmer, with Winter 26 around £95/MWh. Gas-for-power demand is set to rise day-on-day as renewable output dips early in the week, and with both Sizewell B units, much of Heysham and a Hartlepool unit offline, low nuclear availability is adding to the call on CCGT generation. Continental prompt power was firm under a high-pressure system bringing below-average wind, with French nuclear availability healthy around 45 GW and interconnectors helping to balance the system, while further-dated German contracts slipped to multi-week lows on improving gas fundamentals.
Other Commodities
Crude led the complex lower, with Brent settling around $72/bbl - down roughly 4% on Friday and close to 10% on the week - as the escalation premium drained away once it was clear physical flows were unaffected and both sides moved to de-escalate; WTI fell in step to about $69/bbl. Coal eased, the ARA front year settling near $107/tonne, down on the week. Carbon drifted lower in both schemes but moves were small, with EUAs at €80.28/tonne and UKAs at £57.15/tonne, each marginally softer on Friday and leaving the UKA-EUA discount broadly unchanged. In global gas, JKM held its premium to TTF at around $15.5/MMBtu while Henry Hub sat near $3.3/MMBtu.