Energy Market Report - 26 June 2026
Wholesale gas and power eased through Thursday's session as the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Middle East continued to fade and forecasts pointed to cooler, windier conditions from the weekend. Crude settled higher on renewed Strait of Hormuz tension before softening, while carbon was mixed and coal drifted lower.
Natural Gas
NBP gas continued to grind lower, with the day-ahead settling at 98.00 p/therm and the Winter 2026 front season easing to around 102 p/therm, its weakest since mid-April. The move was driven by the steady unwinding of conflict risk as tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz improved and the preliminary Iran ceasefire held, reducing the premium priced earlier in the week. Fundamentals reinforced the direction: Norwegian supply recovered above 330 mcm/day, with Gassco exit nominations broadly flat at 335.7 mcm/day, while UK LNG sendout held steady at 8 mcm/day on a US-heavy arrivals schedule. The Dutch TTF day-ahead assessed near €40/MWh, also softer. The principal counterweight remains the European heatwave, which is keeping cooling-related gas-for-power demand elevated on the Continent and pulling supply toward mainland terminals. EU storage sits at roughly 47 per cent full, still below seasonal benchmarks, leaving injection demand as the key swing factor through July.
Electricity
UK power was mixed on the prompt. Day-ahead baseload eased to £114.29/MWh in line with gas, but day-ahead peak firmed to £101.60/MWh as a fresh round of French nuclear outages tightened the Continental supply picture. EDF halted further reactors on elevated river water temperatures, reducing the surplus French output that helps balance neighbouring grids, including the UK. The domestic generation mix stayed gas-dominated, with CCGTs supplying around 35 per cent of output and renewables doing the heavy lifting during daylight hours. Forward seasons were broadly steady, with the Summer 2027 baseload near £75/MWh. Wind is forecast to rise into the start of next week before falling back below seasonal norms over the weekend, which keeps the risk of short-lived peak tightness in play.
Other Commodities
Brent settled higher at $75.26/bbl on the Strait of Hormuz vessel strike, but the rally faded and prices drifted back toward pre-conflict levels, reflecting limited conviction in a sustained disruption. Coal eased, with the ARA CIF 2027 contract down to $108.76/tonne. In carbon, EU allowances for December 2026 softened to €80.56/tonne while UK allowances for the same vintage edged up to £57.31/tonne, leaving the UK scheme at a persistent discount to the EU market. Global gas benchmarks were softer, with Asian JKM easing to $15.38/MMBtu, underlining comfortable global LNG availability.