Energy Market Report - 30 June 2026
UK and European wholesale energy markets firmed sharply into Monday's close, led by gas and power on a combination of depleted storage, a renewed geopolitical risk premium and a heat-driven demand spike. The wider commodity complex was mixed, with crude and coal firmer on the day but softer on the week as carbon eased.
Natural Gas
Gas prices rallied on Monday on storage and geopolitics rather than any physical shortage, with the NBP day-ahead settling up 5.30 p/therm at 103.30 p/therm and the Dutch TTF day-ahead gaining around 6 per cent to €42.60/MWh. European storage remains the dominant theme, sitting near 48 per cent full and roughly ten per cent below this point last year, which keeps a heavy summer injection requirement in view; the United Kingdom is notably low within that picture. Supply itself is comfortable: Norwegian exit nominations held steady at around 338 mcm/day per Gassco, flows to the UK via Langeled and FLAGS rose, and LNG send-out from South Hook and Isle of Grain held near 8 mcm/day against a full arrivals schedule led by the United States. Reported fragility in the US-Iran ceasefire, including weekend missile exchanges and a cancelled negotiating round in Doha, sustained a risk premium across the curve, though by Tuesday morning the front had steadied and recovering wind had trimmed day-ahead gas-for-power demand by around 18 mcm/day. The JKM benchmark for Asian LNG held a modest premium to TTF at about $15.82/MMBtu.
Electricity
Power spiked on the prompt on Monday before easing on Tuesday morning. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £123.94/MWh and day-ahead peak at £109.00/MWh, an unusually high summer print driven by a wind slump toward 4.3 GW on the delivery day, heat-related cooling demand, a high gas marginal cost and a reduced nuclear stack, with system stress lifting the maximum system buy price above £190/MWh in the evening. On the Continent, French day-ahead power rose sharply as the recent heat dome forced reactor deratings on elevated river temperatures, though French nuclear is now recovering, reported around 36 GW and forecast above 50 GW from 8 July. The forward curve moved with gas, Winter-26 baseload settling around £96.80/MWh, while clean spark spreads narrowed on near-dated products as carbon slipped. The prompt is already loosening, with the next day-ahead offered back near £104/MWh as wind and solar recovered, though multiple British reactor outages at Heysham, Sizewell B and Hartlepool keep margins tighter than headline capacity implies.
Other Commodities
Crude firmed on Monday but softened into Tuesday and remains lower on the week, with Brent for next-month delivery at $73.15/bbl and WTI at $70.75/bbl, down around 6 and 4 per cent respectively over seven days. Oil and gas have decoupled in recent weeks, with a US-Iran memorandum signed earlier in the month and a gradual recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz easing the acute oil premium while the less flexible gas chain lagged. Coal was firmer on the day but soft on the week, with the ARA CIF Cal-27 contract at $108.46/tonne. Carbon eased as the near-term weather and demand impulse turned, the EUA Dec-26 contract falling €1.50 to €78.78/tonne and the UK ETS Dec-26 contract falling £0.91 to £56.24/tonne, leaving the cross-scheme spread broadly unchanged and near-term pricing driven by residual load and auction rhythm.