Energy Market Update - 28 November 2025
After a soft week, markets steadied. A brief early uptick met warmer, windier forecasts and firm supply, keeping the prompt contained and the curve within its recent range.
Gas and LNG moved sideways to softer. UK demand was about 210 mcm yesterday against a seasonal norm near 253 mcm. Norwegian nominations were strong around 339 mcm per day. UKCS nominations sat near 88 mcm per day and LNG send out about 73 mcm per day, with six UK cargoes due over the next fortnight including two newly added for Milford Haven. EU storage was last reported at 77.2 per cent following a short cold spell. At the front, NBP day ahead settled 74.90 p per therm and December 75.67 p, with January 76.47 p. TTF spot printed near €28.94/MWh and December around €29.02/MWh.
Power eased with gas. UK day ahead baseload cleared at £66.53/MWh and day ahead peak at £80.29/MWh. December baseload was £79.21/MWh, January £84.38/MWh and Q1 2026 £79.79/MWh. Wind has been above normal this week but is expected to fall back toward average, which should lift CCGT load at the margin. Interconnector flows from France, Belgium and the Netherlands remained available. Rising French nuclear availability into December adds regional cover and is likely to cap sharp upside when wind dips.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent held near $63 per barrel and API2 Cal 2026 coal near $100 per tonne. EUAs were about €82/t while UKAs were steady in the high £50s/t, leaving thermal costs elevated but not directional. Elsewhere, record US LNG exports are bolstering European supply, the UK has delayed Lukoil sanctions to February, rooftop solar is accelerating, and grid bottlenecks remain costly with SSE’s curtailment income rising alongside high constraint spend.