Energy Market Update - 27 November 2025
Gas and power slipped as forecasts turned milder and windier into early December. EU carbon eased from a near two week high. Storage remains comfortable near 78 per cent.
European gas benchmarks weakened as the near-term outlook warmed and wind increased. NBP and TTF drifted lower across the prompt and front month, with curves capped by steady Norwegian nominations and a busy North West Europe LNG slate. Net withdrawals over the past week were roughly three times the rate seen in early November, yet inventories remain ample for the time of year. Asia’s colder revisions have tightened the Pacific balance, but arbitrage remains narrow and Atlantic cargoes continue to favour Europe. Ukraine’s Naftogaz securing most of the finance for 4.4 bcm adds visibility to regional winter sourcing and reduces headline risk.
UK power followed gas. Day-ahead eased as higher wind was added to the stack for early December and temperatures moved back toward seasonal norms. Forward contracts weakened with fuels, while hourly prices stayed sensitive to wind swings. Interconnectors from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to provide margin cover, although IFA1 is limited to 1.5 GW until 20 February 2026, which trims import headroom in tighter evening blocks. Nuclear availability was broadly stable and short planned outages kept output near recent levels.
EU carbon prices slipped on extra auction supply and profit taking, with UKAs tracking the move. The retreat removed a little cost support for the forward power stack but did not break the broader range that has held through November. Oil was broadly unchanged in the low to mid 60s dollars per barrel, while API2 Cal-26 coal hovered close to 100 dollars per tonne. LNG freight rates in the Atlantic remain elevated, yet strong US production and firm European hub pricing continue to attract cargoes into North West Europe, helping to offset the recent, weather-driven uplift in heating demand.