Energy Market Update - 26 November 2025
Gas softened as warmer European outlooks and firm supply met range-bound demand. Power eased at the prompt. Carbon rose despite weaker gas. Markets stayed orderly and wind led.
European gas drifted lower. TTF held in the low €30s/MWh, while NBP day-ahead settled at 77.30 p/therm and the front month at 76.70 p/therm. A 0.5 degree upward revision to European temperatures removed near-term heating risk. The UK system opened 9 mcm short, though fundamentals were comfortable as Norwegian nominations increased via Langeled and LNG send-out rose to about 82 mcm/day. Six UK-bound cargoes are expected in the next two weeks. EU storage was reported at 78.14 per cent, with light withdrawals. Asian temperatures were revised lower, lending support to Pacific winter demand, but arbitrage remains tight and cargo values continue to track European hubs.
UK power tracked gas lower at the prompt. Day-ahead baseload cleared at £103.83/MWh and peak at £123.63/MWh. Forward prices were steadier, with December baseload at £79.24/MWh and Q1-26 near £80.88/MWh. Wind output is set to ramp through the day-ahead window, curbing gas-for-power and easing evening tightness, while interconnectors provided margin cover and nuclear availability was broadly stable. The stack remains highly sensitive to hourly renewables, with late sessions seeing spreads narrow as wind recovers.
Other commodities were mixed. EUAs firmed by about 1.6 per cent to €81.87/t and UKAs edged higher, extending the month’s range despite softer gas. Brent settled at $62.48/bbl and API2 Cal-26 coal at $99.70/t. JKM hovered near $11.1/MMBtu and European spot-linked cargo values stayed close to hub parity, reinforcing a comfortable Atlantic supply picture while US liquefaction remains strong.