Energy Market Update - 25 November 2025
Prices eased after Monday’s sell off then steadied this morning. Peace headlines, softer demand and firm supply framed the move. Short-term wind is choppy, with improvements flagged later this week.
NBP and TTF retraced early-week gains as optimism on peace talks met a comfortable supply picture. At the open the UK system was long by 14 mcm with demand near 330 mcm, roughly 6 degrees below norm. Front contracts reflected the softer tone, with NBP Dec around the high 70s pence per therm and TTF Dec near the high 20s to low 30s euros per MWh. Norwegian flows are recovering as maintenance fades and LNG remains supportive, with a dense slate of Atlantic cargoes for North-West Europe through late November. EU storage is in the low 80s per cent, slowing seasonally. The near curve remains range bound, with weather and any shift in peace rhetoric the main swing factors.
UK Day-Ahead baseload cleared in three figures as lower wind during core blocks lifted CCGT runs, before easing on late renewable recovery. The UK baseload front month traded in the low 80s per MWh, with winter strips firmer than summer but contained by gas and steady imports. Interconnectors from France and the Netherlands provided margin cover. Outlook shows wind rebuilding later this week while temperatures normalise, pointing to softer prompt hours and less gas-for-power when renewables recover.
Brent was near 63 to 64 dollars per barrel and WTI around 59 dollars. API2 coal Cal-26 was just under 100 dollars per tonne. Carbon remained supportive but off recent highs, with EUA Dec-25 near 81 euros per tonne and UK ETS around 66 euros per tonne. Currency moves were marginal, leaving cross-commodity signals broadly neutral for curves.