Energy Market Update - 24 November 2025
Gas and power opened slightly firmer. Colder weather is lifting demand, but stronger Norwegian flows, healthy LNG and peace talks kept balances comfortable. Prompt remains volatile while curves hold within recent ranges.
NBP day ahead printed 79.00 p/therm, with the front month indicated near 81.35 p/therm early. TTF spot was about €30.35/MWh and Germany’s hub around €31.93/MWh. The UK system opened long by roughly 14 mcm with total demand near 330 mcm, around 87 mcm above seasonal norms as temperatures sit about 6°C below normal. Norwegian nominations were close to 331 mcm/day, UKCS output about 106 mcm/day and LNG send-out near 69 mcm/day, alongside modest withdrawals from medium-range storage. A dense slate of Atlantic cargoes is scheduled across North West Europe, adding near-term flexibility. Peace-process headlines continued to trim risk premia across the curve.
UK day ahead baseload cleared around £84/MWh, easing from earlier highs as gas retreated late in the session. The UK front month baseload was near £82/MWh, with the German equivalent close to €101/MWh. Wind output is set to run below seasonal norms through the back end of the week, keeping gas-for-power demand elevated in lower wind hours. Interconnector flows from the continent provided additional cover and French nuclear availability remains broadly stable, helping to cap sharp upside moves. Curve pricing followed gas lower from last week’s peaks, with Q1 power marginally softer and summer strips steady.
Brent was about $62.6/bbl after a weekly decline, coal API2 Cal 2026 hovered near $100/tonne and European carbon eased, with EUA Dec 2025 around €80/t and UK ETS near £58/t. LNG price signals were steady, with JKM in the mid-$11/MMBtu range and European spot-linked cargo values close to hub parity. Sterling traded near 1.136 against the euro and about 1.309 against the dollar.