Energy Market Update - 21 November 2025
Gas and power opened firmer after Thursday’s drop. Cold weather persists, but strong Norwegian nominations and active LNG scheduling keep the system balanced. Volatility remains prompt and wind led.
European gas edged up in early trade before steadying. NBP front month was about 81 p/therm after Tuesday’s high near 84.5 p/therm. Spot printed around 82 p/therm. TTF sat near 31 to 32 €/MWh. The UK system opened long by roughly 10 to 14 mcm with demand around 330 to 350 mcm. Norwegian exports were indicated near 330 mcm per day. Langeled and Vesterled were steady. UK LNG sendout held near 95 to 100 mcm per day with further Atlantic cargoes queued. EU storage remained in the low 80s per cent. Withdrawals picked up but the cushion is still comfortable. Peace headlines around Ukraine trimmed earlier risk premia and capped follow through on the cold spell.
Power firmed on the prompt as wind stayed light. UK Day-Ahead baseload cleared near £110/MWh with peak around £131/MWh. The front month was steadier near £83/MWh and Q1-26 near £84/MWh, tracking gas rather than leading it. Lower wind through core hours lifted CCGT load, with late recovery narrowing spreads into the close. Interconnectors from France, Belgium and the Netherlands provided margin cover. IFA1 remains capped at 1.5 GW until 20 February 2026, limiting import headroom during tight periods. Nuclear availability was broadly stable with short outages still suppressing output versus last year. Forecasts show weaker wind into the weekend then gradual improvement into early December. That profile keeps the prompt reactive but should ease prices when higher wind materialises.
Other commodities were mixed but non-directional. EUAs traded around 81 to 82 €/t and UKAs in the high £50s/t, maintaining thermal costs without forcing the curve. Brent hovered near $63.4/bbl as soft macro signals offset supply headlines. API2 Cal-26 coal was about $101.7/t. JKM held near $11.7/MMBtu with European spot-linked cargo values close to hub parity. Atlantic LNG charter rates remain elevated, yet ample US loadings and European hub premia continue to direct cargoes into North-West Europe. Sterling was broadly stable against the euro and dollar, adding no material push to fuel costs.