Energy Market Update - 20 November 2025
Gas eased on stronger Norwegian flows and peace-talk headlines. Power rose on weaker wind and cooler conditions. Storage and LNG remained strong, which kept moves contained and curves within range.
Natural gas was softer across hubs as supply improved and risk premia faded. Norwegian exports reached about 325 mcm/day despite Aasta Hansteen being curtailed, helping the UK system open long. UK Day-ahead settled at 81.70p/therm, down 1.45 on the day, with December near 81.3p/therm. LNG cover stayed firm. UK send-out ran near 95 mcm/day with six cargoes expected over the next ten days. Ukraine’s DTEK received its first US LNG cargo via Lithuania, about 100 mcm loaded at Plaquemines, to offset damaged domestic supply. Models showed today as the coldest point in the current run before temperatures edge up, though still a little below normal.
Power firmed on the prompt as wind dipped through core hours. UK Day-ahead baseload settled at £90.50/MWh, up £7.40 day on day. Forward prices slipped with gas, with December at £82.82/MWh and Q1-26 at £83.54/MWh. Intraday, tighter evening blocks lifted CCGT load; late wind recovery narrowed spreads into the close. Interconnectors from France, Belgium and the Netherlands added margin cover, though IFA1 remains capped at 1.5 GW through winter, which limits import headroom in tight periods. Nuclear availability was broadly steady and is expected to improve into late month. Wind is forecast to rebuild over the weekend, which should soften prompt prices when realised.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent closed at $63.51/bbl, while API2 Cal-26 coal was $101.30/tonne. EUAs eased to €80.66/t and UKAs edged up to £57.11/t, leaving thermal costs elevated but not directional. Positioning showed speculative net length in EUAs near 102 Mt, up roughly 4.4 Mt week on week, signalling dip-buying even as prices paused. LNG benchmarks stayed close to European hubs, keeping Atlantic-Pacific arbitrage tight. Industry voices warned against relying solely on US LNG as Europe phases out Russian LNG by 2027, reinforcing the need for diversified supply.