Energy Market Update - 19 November 2025
Tuesday’s colder revisions and weaker renewables lifted gas and power. Early Wednesday saw a modest pullback as supply steadied, but the near curve remains supported by below-normal wind and a cooler outlook.
TTF December was last near €31.10/MWh. NBP December around 81.9p/therm, with Day-ahead close to 83p/therm. The UK system opened long despite higher demand. Estimated demand about 300 mcm. UKCS output near 116 mcm/day. Langeled nominations increased and offset storage draws. Dvalin returned from an unplanned outage, while Aasta Hansteen remains curtailed by roughly 10 mcm/day. LNG send-out rose to about 90-95 mcm/day, with additional Atlantic cargoes due at South Hook and Isle of Grain. EU storage sits close to 82 per cent after light weekend withdrawals. Forecasts keep temperatures below seasonal norms through late November with a slightly cooler bias into mid-December.
Power tracked gas. Day-ahead baseload cleared near £83/MWh after wind recovered late in the session. December baseload traded around £82.9/MWh. Guidance has GB wind averaging roughly 10 to 20 per cent below seasonal norms this week at about 11 GW, then rebuilding over the weekend. The 2 GW IFA1 link operates at 1.5 GW until 20 February 2026, limiting import headroom during tight hours. The colder profile with sub-par wind saw the December baseload spark spread widen sharply on Tuesday, before easing marginally as gas softened. Interconnectors from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to provide margin cover. Nuclear availability was broadly steady.
Other commodities were mixed. EUAs firmed back toward €81/t while UKAs hovered near £57/t, keeping thermal costs elevated. Brent traded around $64.9/bbl. API2 Cal-26 coal was close to $102/t. JKM held near the low $11s/MMBtu and Henry Hub was a little above $3/MMBtu, keeping Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage tight and reinforcing hub-linked pricing in North-West Europe.