Energy Market Update - 18 November 2025
Gas and power ticked higher as the first cold snap approached. Forecasts show Europe 3 - 6°C below average from Thursday before normalising next week. EUAs eased again. Storage withdrawals slowed.
Natural gas moved up marginally on weather. Models now point to a sharper, short-lived drop in temperatures, lifting near-term heating demand. European inventories are just under 82 per cent, with weekend withdrawals lighter than earlier in the week. Norwegian pipeline supply remains strong at roughly 321 - 333 mcm per day, though minor unplanned works at Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin continue to clip capacity. LNG cover is firm. North-West Europe has a dense arrival slate and UK terminals expect several cargoes, keeping send-out high. At the front, TTF December traded close to €31/MWh and NBP December near 82p/therm, while NBP Day-ahead was about 82p/therm.
Power followed gas but stayed wind-led. UK Day-ahead baseload settled near £90/MWh as lower wind tightened the evening stack, with a rebuild expected from tomorrow that should curb CCGT burn. The curve edged up in line with fuel, with December baseload around the low £80s/MWh and Q1 broadly steady. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands added cover and nuclear availability was little changed, leaving prompt prices sensitive to hourly renewable swings.
Other commodities were mixed. EUAs slipped on profit taking and rangebound trading, having spent most of November between €79 and €82 per tonne. UKAs softened in line. Brent hovered near $64/bbl and API2 Cal-26 coal around $103/tonne. LNG markets were active. Atlantic charter rates jumped to the highest since early 2024 as US exports expand, which may keep more cargoes in the basin and marginally widen Asia-Europe spreads. Ukraine secured additional US LNG via a northern route into Lithuania, underscoring regional efforts to diversify winter supply. Household bills in Britain are set to dip in January before network charges push them back up in April, a reminder that non-energy costs remain a growing part of end-user pricing.